The cost of a jug is not knowable when you buy it
An ag retailer commits to a season in the autumn. The programmes that decide what that season cost — early order, prepay, volume bands, market share, loyalty — settle the following spring, on bases that overlap and windows that do not align. The honest position is that the effective cost of a product is unknown at the moment of the purchase commitment, and is therefore unknown at the moment you quote a grower.
That is not a data-entry problem. It is a modelling problem: nothing in the purchasing system holds the stacked structure, so nobody can answer what the next thousand units actually cost.
Market share is the one that bites
Volume programmes fail gently — you land in a lower band and earn less. Market-share programmes fail violently. Qualification depends on your mix against competing chemistries, so a single large grower switching can drop you below a threshold and reprice the whole season retroactively.
The exposure is calculable in-season if you are tracking mix against thresholds. Almost nobody is, because it requires competitive context the purchasing system does not hold. Flagging the accounts whose behaviour moves you across a threshold, while there is still season left, is where the money is.
What good looks like
- Entitlement claimed above 98%, including the programmes that pay small amounts across many products — the ones most often abandoned.
- Effective net cost modelled for above 95% of committed volume, so a grower quote reflects the season you actually bought.
- Threshold risk flagged with runway rather than discovered in the true-up.
How RevUpra runs this
Manufacturer programmes are modelled as stacked rules with their own bases, hierarchies and windows, so effective net cost per product is a computed number rather than an annual reconstruction. Market-share positions are tracked in-season against thresholds, with the accounts driving the exposure named. Accruals are computed from transaction lines against locked periods so the season-end true-up is a confirmation rather than a surprise, and grower-side programme credits settle against the same engine that tracks what the manufacturer owes you.